Managing Uncertainty for Value

I have this ability to bring together to seemingly disparate topics into a relatively cohesive thesis. In the past – I’ve applied the formula for change as it relates to business growth – to your own humanness to help understand your own resistance to change…

And in this installment of The-Life-of-Meredith-Theater, I’m going to chat about a topic that I learned while working as an exploration geologist.

Managing Uncertainty for Value.

Let me provide some context. As part of a team seeking to find, appraise, develop, and produce oil & gas from the depths of the Earth, there are at least 2 things that are known truths:

• Nothing is Certain.
• The End Game was Value.

Can you see the conundrum?

Even with the most highly skilled professionals on the job… there was no way on Earth that we could – with 100% certainty – answer questions like:

• Where is the oil field?
• What shape is it?
• How much oil is there? Is it oil?
• What rocks will we drill through to get there?
• Is the velocity model right?
• What pressures will we see on the way down?
• How long will it take to drill this well?
• Will the economy favor making this investment to drill?

Yet – those were the questions that we answered everyday.

Soooo challenging for someone who suffers paralysis through analysis. Also so challenging for someone who thinks outside-of-the-box. There are JUST SO MANY POSSIBILITIES.

What we had to do was to literally manage that uncertainty for value. Because, the objective was to drill a profitable well despite all of the uncertainty that surrounded drilling a profitable well.

AND – each of those questions up there compounds uncertainty. Crap.

So how did we answer those questions? Let me show you what that looks like.

No, in fact, let yourself show you what this looks like.

I’m going to ask you a couple of questions… your job is to manage uncertainty for value. I’ll take it easy on you, I promise. Here’s the first one: (fill in the blanks)

I am _____ % sure that there were between ______ & ______ people living in the United States in the year 1900. 

Now play with the inputs here… How about this:

I am 100% sure that there were between 100 and 1 billion people living in the US in the year 1900.

I am 10% sure that there were between 100 million and 150 million people living in the US in the year 1900.

Notice that – in this case – as I narrow in on a more reasonable answer, my certainty erodes.

(no cheating – there was no Google in 1900).

I based my answer on understanding the estimate of the population today to be somewhere around 300 million – and then taking away two-thirds to a half of that estimate. It’s an educated guess really. It helps that I live in the US and that I’ve actually wondered about the number of people that live here before. It’s harder to characterize the % that I’m sure… I might be more sure if – for example – I was a historian or a statistician and had some more insight into the topic.

Go ahead and have a think about how you would answer this question… and then read on when you’re done monkeying around.

OK – I just looked it up – the census says there were 76,212,168 million people accounted for in the US in the year 1900…

So how did you do with your estimate?

I didn’t do too bad. That number falls within my 100% certainty estimate. I was right!  It might not have been a very useful estimate, but it was correct – and I accurately characterize my uncertainty.

It also falls outside my 10% certainty estimate… which also means I reasonably characterized some uncertainty – or in other words, I was 90% sure that I would be wrong.

Your answer to that question and your characterization of uncertainty will depend upon your experience, your current knowledge, your skill set, and your perspective… It can be challenging to do, but anyone can play this game.

Now let’s try a few more that hit closer to home. This time, answer this question at least 3 times with different levels of certainty.

I am ___ % sure that I will live to be between ___ & ___ years old.

I am ___ % sure that I will live to be between ___ & ___ years old.

I am ___ % sure that I will live to be between ___ & ___ years old.

So, what informs your answer here? Your current age, your current health, whether or not you feel in control of your health outcome, your optimism, your social connectivity, the environment you live in, how old grandma or great-grandma lived to be…

Here’s my point… Managing Uncertainty for Value isn’t just about making money using educated guesses. It’s what we do everyday to manage our wellness. Every decision that we make to live our life in a certain way has a compounding effect on our health and outlook. From our food choices, to our sleep habits, to how much time we spend inside, to the company we keep, to the way we move, to the products that we use, to the medications we take, to the joy we cultivate, to the stressors we choose to face, to what we choose to believe…

And a key consideration to all of these things – is that despite the uncertainty of health & wellness information out there – you can manage to gain health.

Despite the motives of people like me… always seeking scientific evidence for this way or that… you have all you need to make positive change.

This is the reason that I have veered into this field of ancestral health – it’s like starting from square one. Strip away the things that humans have created without the full benefit of really understanding how it affects human health (re: uncertainty), and you have a fine perspective to evaluate your health from a new perspective.

And now, I make & evaluate uncertainty statements like this (consider what your answers are in light of your own perspective):

I am ____ % sure that GMO’s & their associated chemicals are detrimental to human health over a period of ____ years.

I am ____ % sure that all vaccines are safe and effective for ____ to ____ % of the population.

I am ____ % sure that inactivity results in ____ to ____ fewer years of life.

I am ____ % sure that cultivating a rich and diverse gut microbiota will add _____  to ____ years to my life.

I am ____ % sure that working ____ hours a week will enable me to sleep ____ to ____ hours every night.

I am ____ % sure that reaching out to _____ friends per week will help me to reach my health goals in ____ year(s).

I am ____ % sure that human beings require ____ to ____ hours of sunlight per day.

I am ____ % sure that adding ____ servings of veggies each day will help me to *ahem* <poop> ____ times per week.

You get the drift.

Your future is uncertain because it hasn’t been written yet… but the possibilities are pretty incredible. When you stop to think about what your own awareness is around particular health topics, and start to experiment with managing this uncertainty for ‘health’ in your life… you’ll know where you stand, and begin to inform your story going forward.

And that feels good.